ランA
OpenAI
openai/gpt-oss-20b
No – the data do not prove that Version B is superior.
Why not?
- The two weeks were not randomized; traffic sources (e.g., referral, paid, organic) differed, so any conversion difference could be due to those sources rather than the version.
- The sample size is small (100 visitors per week), so the observed 8 % vs. 14 % difference could be due to random variation.
- External factors (seasonality, day‑of‑week, marketing campaigns) could have changed between the weeks.
Decision recommendation
Run a properly randomized A/B test (or multivariate test) with a larger, balanced sample and control for traffic source. Only then can you statistically assess whether B truly outperforms A.
Uncertainty
- Confounding by traffic source and other time‑varying factors.
- Statistical uncertainty due to the small sample size.
- Potential interaction with other variables (device, location, etc.) that were not controlled.
この実行のレビューを確認する
- 統計的不確実性と交絡を名前付けます
- バランスの取れたランダムテストを推奨します
- 追加の交絡要因を、観測済みの出来事ではなく仮説として示している
- 交絡要因は未確認です。差の原因とする前に根拠を集める必要があります
最適な使用法: 不確実性を説明する必要がある意思決定メモです。