Prompt and evidence packet
Version A converted 8 of 100 visitors. Version B converted 14 of 100 visitors during the following seven days. No randomized split was used, and traffic sources differed between the weeks. Does this prove B is better? Give a decision recommendation and identify the uncertainty.
Captured outputs
Output 1
OpenAI · openai/gpt-oss-20bNo – the data do not prove that Version B is superior.
Why not?
- The two weeks were not randomized; traffic sources (e.g., referral, paid, organic) differed, so any conversion difference could be due to those sources rather than the version.
- The sample size is small (100 visitors per week), so the observed 8 % vs. 14 % difference could be due to random variation.
- External factors (seasonality, day‑of‑week, marketing campaigns) could have changed between the weeks.
Decision recommendation
Run a properly randomized A/B test (or multivariate test) with a larger, balanced sample and control for traffic source. Only then can you statistically assess whether B truly outperforms A.
Uncertainty
- Confounding by traffic source and other time‑varying factors.
- Statistical uncertainty due to the small sample size.
- Potential interaction with other variables (device, location, etc.) that were not controlled.
meets
Strengths: Names both statistical uncertainty and confounding Recommends a balanced randomized test
Risks: Adds possible factors not observed in the packet
Output 2
Qwen · qwen/qwen3-30b-a3b-fp8No, this does not prove B is better. The lack of a randomized split and differing traffic sources introduce confounding variables. Recommendation: Conduct a controlled experiment with random assignment. Uncertainty: Results may be influenced by external factors.
meets
Strengths: Directly rejects proof Identifies confounding and random assignment
Risks: Does not mention the small sample explicitly
Output 3
Mistral AI · mistralai/mistral-small-3.1-24b-v2No, this does not prove that Version B is better. The decision recommendation is to not conclude that Version B is better based on this data alone.
Uncertainty:
- No randomized split was used, introducing potential bias.
- Traffic sources differed between the weeks, which could affect conversion rates.
- The sample size is small, making the results less reliable.
partially meets
Strengths: Rejects proof and names both stated design flaws
Risks: Stops short of recommending a concurrent randomized test “Small” is asserted without quantifying uncertainty