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Reviewed AI Answer Case

Does this conversion result prove an improvement?

An 8% to 14% change looks persuasive, but sequential weeks with different traffic cannot isolate the effect of the page version.

Reviewed by Richbay8/27/2026Revision 1

Prompt and evidence packet

Version A converted 8 of 100 visitors. Version B converted 14 of 100 visitors during the following seven days. No randomized split was used, and traffic sources differed between the weeks. Does this prove B is better? Give a decision recommendation and identify the uncertainty.

Captured outputs

Output 1

OpenAI · openai/gpt-oss-20b

No – the data do not prove that Version B is superior.

Why not?

  • The two weeks were not randomized; traffic sources (e.g., referral, paid, organic) differed, so any conversion difference could be due to those sources rather than the version.
  • The sample size is small (100 visitors per week), so the observed 8 % vs. 14 % difference could be due to random variation.
  • External factors (seasonality, day‑of‑week, marketing campaigns) could have changed between the weeks.

Decision recommendation
Run a properly randomized A/B test (or multivariate test) with a larger, balanced sample and control for traffic source. Only then can you statistically assess whether B truly outperforms A.

Uncertainty

  • Confounding by traffic source and other time‑varying factors.
  • Statistical uncertainty due to the small sample size.
  • Potential interaction with other variables (device, location, etc.) that were not controlled.

meets

Strengths: Names both statistical uncertainty and confounding Recommends a balanced randomized test

Risks: Adds possible factors not observed in the packet

Output 2

Qwen · qwen/qwen3-30b-a3b-fp8

No, this does not prove B is better. The lack of a randomized split and differing traffic sources introduce confounding variables. Recommendation: Conduct a controlled experiment with random assignment. Uncertainty: Results may be influenced by external factors.

meets

Strengths: Directly rejects proof Identifies confounding and random assignment

Risks: Does not mention the small sample explicitly

Output 3

Mistral AI · mistralai/mistral-small-3.1-24b-v2

No, this does not prove that Version B is better. The decision recommendation is to not conclude that Version B is better based on this data alone.

Uncertainty:

  • No randomized split was used, introducing potential bias.
  • Traffic sources differed between the weeks, which could affect conversion rates.
  • The sample size is small, making the results less reliable.

partially meets

Strengths: Rejects proof and names both stated design flaws

Risks: Stops short of recommending a concurrent randomized test “Small” is asserted without quantifying uncertainty

RichBay judgment

A larger observed rate is evidence of a difference in these samples—not proof that the version caused it.

Method

  1. Separate observed rates from causality.
  2. Name non-random allocation and changing traffic sources.
  3. Recommend a concurrent randomized comparison.

Disclosure

One output per model, captured through Cloudflare Workers AI with fixed prompt and parameters. Apache-2.0 model families. This case does not establish a general model ranking.

Review due 11/25/2026.

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