Step by step
Apply the method to one real task.
Copy observations without adjectives
Record counts, dates, quoted statements, and measured rates exactly as supplied. Remove labels such as good, low, strong, representative, or successful unless the packet defines them.
- Checkpoint
- Each observation can be traced to a visible source and does not contain an unstated judgment.
Place interpretations in a separate column
Write every explanation, label, generalization, causal claim, and forecast as an inference. Name which observation motivated it without treating that link as proof.
- Checkpoint
- A reader can distinguish what happened from what the reviewer thinks it may mean.
Expose the comparison rule
For labels such as high, low, ready, or improved, record the benchmark, target, comparison cohort, or decision threshold. If none exists, mark the label unsupported.
- Checkpoint
- Every evaluative label has a documented rule or is removed from the decision.
Choose only among supported actions
State what the current evidence permits: proceed within a boundary, pause for evidence, stop, or remain unresolved. Do not invent a forced answer when the decision rule is missing.
- Checkpoint
- The action follows the ledger and includes the human owner of the decision.
Name the next discriminating evidence
Ask for the smallest new observation that could change the action: a retention window, representative sample, concurrent randomized test, target, or failure-rate check.
- Checkpoint
- The next step reduces a named uncertainty rather than collecting more undirected data.
Decision rules
Make the boundary explicit.
- Counts are observations; labels such as low or strong require a benchmark.
- Sequential changes are signals, not causal proof, unless the design controls relevant alternatives.
- A sparse packet can support a bounded next step even when it cannot support expansion or attribution.
- State unresolved when the evidence cannot distinguish the available decisions.
Reusable artifact
Observation–inference ledger
Copy the template into your notes, or download a Markdown file and keep it with the task evidence.
Preview the template
# Observation–Inference Ledger
## Decision
- Decision to make:
- Available actions:
- Decision owner:
## Ledger
| Observation (source wording) | Source | Inference or label | Required benchmark / assumption | Supported? |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| | | | | Yes / No / Unclear |
## Bounded conclusion
- What the evidence directly supports:
- What remains inference:
- Current action:
- Why this action fits the boundary:
## Next evidence
- Uncertainty to reduce:
- Smallest discriminating observation or test:
- What result would change the action:
Linked evidence
Inspect where this method was applied.
- Pilot evidence Reviewed Case
The source case for separating invite, activity, and interview counts from readiness labels.
- Conversion uncertainty Reviewed Case
The source case for separating observed rate changes from causal attribution.